President Donald Trump on Wednesday pressed forward with blanket tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, including from Australia, in what Prime Minister Anthony Albanese characterized as “not the actions of a friendly nation.”

The move has fueled doubts in Australia, one of the U.S.’s closest allies in the Asia-Pacific, over Washington’s reliability at a time when China is increasingly flexing its muscles in the region.

Flights between Australia and New Zealand were paused on February 21 when the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy vessels conducted live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea. Australian officials were only alerted to the drills via a passenger jet’s radio transmission.

China is often accused by U.S. allies of provocations in the South China Sea—where China’s sovereignty claims overlap with those of several neighbors.

Chinese navy maneuvers, which took placeoutside Australia’s territorial waters but within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), have raised concerns about Beijing’s intentions south of the Equator.

This could mean that the Trump administration will have to back its Australian ally more forcefully. While not part of NATO, the country is a member of the trilateral security partnership AUKUS, along with the U.S. and United Kingdom.

Canberra is also part of the American-led Quad “strategic alignment” of Indo-Pacific countries, which includes India and Japan. It also buys military kit from the U.S., a relationship China has a motive to upend.

“The same salami slicing strategy China employs in what it perceives as its backyard is now being taken to the Southwest Pacific,” Zev Faintuch, head of research and intelligence at security firm Global Guardian, told Newsweek.

He said that, akin to China’s drills around Taiwan, which most recently took place at the end of February, the live-fire exercise in the Tasman Sea highlights how China can cut the air and sea links between Australia and New Zealand at will and without recrimination.

“Ultimately, China’s intent in the wider Indo-Pacific is to displace the U.S. as the region’s sheriff and to leverage hard power to dominate the trade and diplomatic relations it has with the region’s countries,” he said.

China’s Capability

China is expanding its global military and has the largest navy by hull count, with over 370 vessels. In October 2024, it sent two destroyers to the South Pacific island nation of Vanuatu. On February 27, the U.S. Navy missile-armed USS Shiloh cruiser visited French Polynesia’s capital, Papeete.

A Newsweek map has tracked the latest movements of the Chinese task group, which consists of the destroyer CNS Zunyi, frigate CNS Hengyang, and replenishment ship CNS Weishanhu, around Australia. On Sunday, the flotilla was in the Sunda Strait, an Indonesian waterway.

But Canberra must walk a fine line between expressing concern and avoiding accusations of hypocrisy when exercising freedom of navigation in international waters, Eric Lies, a Washington, D.C.-based analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), told Newsweek.

This is why Australian leaders have focused on the lack of notice rather than accusations of Beijing’s belligerence. China’s Defense Ministry spokesperson, Wu Qian, rejected Australia’s claim, saying the vessels had “repeatedly issued safety notices in advance,” the Associated Press reported.

However, as Newsweek previously reported, a Chinese military observer who requested anonymity said an increased PLA presence in the South Pacific Ocean in the future is almost “inevitable.”

The drills there were in response to the Australian and New Zealand navies’ activities last September in the Taiwan Strait, between China and the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which Beijing considers its territory, the observer said.

Australia-US Partnership

Lies said Canberra can take comfort in the U.S. administration’s signals it considers the Indo-Pacific and the Chinese Communist Party to be its primary strategic concern.

“Since both the U.S. and Australia want to maintain a peaceful and secure region, there is a lot of room for collaboration,” he said.

Euan Graham, senior analyst with the ASPI, told Newsweek that Canberra counts on a strong commitment from U.S. President Donald Trump to AUKUS and that Australia’s geostrategic location is too useful for the U.S. to give this up.

But Australians are comparing the Trump administration’s rhetoric to its treatment of longstanding U.S. allies in Europe and North America.

Graham added that what they fear most is a shift in White House policy toward spheres of influence that takes a sympathetic view of authoritarian leaders, such as China’s Xi Jinping, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and North Korean’s Kim Jong Un.

He also said AUKUS will endure, but Australia needs to strengthen ties with other regional partners, including Japan, a U.S. defense treaty partner that faces similar threats from China and angst about Washington’s commitments.

“That should include better coordination in their strategic messaging, so that they aren’t picked off individually by China, or played off against each other by a Washington determined to take a narrower, hardnosed view of its national interests,” he said.

Trump’s View

Mark Montgomery, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral, said China had sailed to the region before the Talisman Saber exercises involving Australia and the U.S., and the latest drills in the Tasman Sea showed that it is beginning to become a power-projection navy.

“This is different than actions in the South China Sea in the sense that in their wildest violations of international law, China does not claim Australian waters,” Montgomery told Newsweek. “But it is an indication that they are going to do a little bit more every year—it’s like a boiling fog.”

However, the relationship with the U.S. remains strong and could become stronger during the Trump administration.

“Australia’s on the right of a lot of issues. That does not mean they can’t get on the wrong side of Trump,” said Montgomery, a senior fellow from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

“There’s two Trumps—economic Trump and security Trump,” he said. “I don’t think they’ll get on the wrong side of security Trump. They are a force provider.”

Australia sought unsuccessfully to be exempted from Trump’s latest tariff salvo, with Prime Minister Albanese saying the U.S. had ignored his repeated attempts to reach out in recent weeks.

However, analysts say the impact on Australia’s economy will be minimal. The U.S. accounts for only 10 percent of the country’s steel and aluminum exports, which can be redirected to other markets.