The NFL Super Bowl is over, and it’s time for “NASCAR’s Super Bowl” — the Daytona 500, the crown jewel of NASCAR’s crown jewel races and the official kickoff to the 2025 Cup Series. Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski are tied at +1200 odds to win it, and all the usual suspects are close behind. But, as we’ll discuss below, this is a race that plays to upsets, making it a must-see for any motorsports fans.
To get us excited, informed and ready to make some bets, we have our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, back in the house to answer all our burning questions. It’s great to be back!
The Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway is this Sunday, February 16, at 2:30 p.m. ET, airing on Fox.
Welcome back to us all! Last year, you turned this editor into a NASCAR fan — can’t wait to run it back with you both! What are you most excited about this year?
Jeff: Glad to be back! So this year, on the surface, we shouldn’t expect to see a drastically different group of drivers at the top. The cars haven’t changed. The rules haven’t changed. Sure, some teams always rise and fall, but it’s going to be a lot of the same names. So in that regard, I’m anxious to see how some of the new combinations do. For example, Chase Briscoe, who just won the Daytona 500 pole, is now driving Martin Truex Jr.’s former car at Joe Gibbs Racing after Truex retired. Is Briscoe in for a big season? That could be a new name at the top. Also, Spire Motorsports has made tons of investments and has three drivers who could potentially win their way into the playoffs and disrupt the balance of power (Michael McDowell, Carson Hocevar and Justin Haley). I’m most interested to see how those storylines play out.
Jordan: How Joe Gibbs Racing bounces back after a “down” season — by its lofty standards — is going to be something to watch. In addition to signing Briscoe, the team made several other notable personnel changes with the goal of elevating its performance back to its customary high level. Whether these changes have the intended effect where all four JGR teams are in contention is going to be a predominant storyline, especially through the opening months. The longer it goes that JGR doesn’t win with any sort of regularity, the more eyebrows will be raised.
Let’s start with the big picture: Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell are tied as favorites (+550 odds on BetMGM) to win the Cup Series Championship this year. Drafting off Jeff’s recent predictions (where subscribers can get in on the action!), what are your thoughts on futures for this year? If we’re making wild, insane, truly-too-early picks: Who you got to win it all? Who do you have for the regular-season champ?
Jeff: Kyle Larson recently said he could see a scenario where even if he won 20 races in a year, he could still lose the championship based on how this playoff format works. Remember, Joey Logano was 15th in the standings at the end of the regular season last year and won the title. It’s not about how good you are all year; it’s about how good you are in the last few races — and the championship race at Phoenix in particular. Well, who is good there? Team Penske. Logano and teammate Ryan Blaney have combined to win all three championships in the Next Gen Era, all of which were decided at Phoenix. I’ll take Blaney to win it again after Larson wins the regular season championship.
Jordan: Both Bell and Larson are excellent championship picks, more than deserving of the label as “title favorites.” At this point, you know what you’re getting from each of them to where you can go ahead and pencil them down for three-plus wins, a number of stage wins, a bunch of laps led and amassing a horde of playoff points. Looking at the big picture, Larson is more than due to win a second championship and Bell his first.
Are you both agreed on: 1) the person who is a Championship 4 lock and 2) which team will be the best?
Jeff: My rule for the preseason picks was my Championship 4 lock could not be the same person as my regular-season champion, so I’ll go with Blaney as my lock. But unless something unforeseen happens, I don’t see how Hendrick Motorsports isn’t the overall best team. Larson should win five races, Chase Elliott and William Byron should win a few each and Alex Bowman is highly motivated while racing for his job. And remember, Bowman actually made the final eight last year until he was disqualified after the race, which put Logano into that round instead. And we know how that turned out for Logano.
Jordan: In this format, there is no such thing as a “Championship 4 lock.” That said, Bell, Larson, Blaney, Elliott, Byron and maybe Denny Hamlin should all be in the mix. Which one among them wins is going to depend heavily on who gets hot come the playoffs and who can best avoid disastrous results.
Anything different about the rules or field this year that will significantly affect racing strategy?
Jeff: I really don’t see anything. I’ve been calling this the “Status Quo Season.” Whereas the first few years of this car had many unknowns, I think it’s going to be much easier to identify the main contenders this season. Now, we all know the races play out in a way where the fastest cars don’t always win — there’s a lot of wacky stuff that happens in NASCAR thanks to fluke cautions or big wrecks or something — but in terms of the best, it’s still going to be mostly a Hendrick/Penske/Joe Gibbs Racing show most weeks.
Jordan: “Status quo” is a good way to describe it, where we have a pretty good sense of who the players are. One driver not mentioned, though, who deserves some shine is Tyler Reddick, who last year won the regular-season points title and advanced to the Championship 4. If 23XI can again give Reddick fast cars, he more than has the talent to take advantage and challenge for the championship.
NASCAR announced last month that any world-famous driver from outside NASCAR can get an automatic spot in a Cup Series race. IndyCar driver Helio Castroneves will take advantage of that rule change this weekend. You outlined why this is so controversial, but can you talk about the likelihood that a big star (I’m thinking of a Formula 1 driver, say) takes advantage of that this year? If so, what’s the likelihood that they could even make a good race?
Jeff: Despite my personal feelings on the validity of this rule, imagine if NASCAR is able to lure F1 veteran Sergio Pérez to run the inaugural Mexico City race this season. Or really any F1 driver at any road course. NASCAR wants the attention and eyeballs, so that would be a big win for them. Could they win the race? No, not without stock car experience (the cars are that different, even if it’s the same track). But a top-15 would be very respectable. In terms of an oval though, there’s about zero chance a non-NASCAR driver would ever win a race.
Jordan: It’s a possibility, for sure. NASCAR would certainly like to see an elite driver from outside NASCAR try their hand at racing a stock car, especially in Mexico City, which is one of the most anticipated races of the season and the kind of track where a road-course ace could excel.
What are the chances that someone who isn’t in the running for the Cup Series title (like Truex) will snag a win at Daytona this weekend?
Jeff: I would think Truex is the only one who can do it out of the “open” cars. Jimmie Johnson hasn’t had much luck in his part-time starts since retiring, Castroneves has zero experience and the rest won’t have enough help from teammates or trust from the current field to draft with them. But even though Truex is famously winless in his entire career at superspeedways (an astounding 0-for-79 at Daytona and Talladega), he’s run much better than his numbers show. The Daytona 500 is a game of chance when it comes to avoiding the wrecks, and Truex could absolutely win the race if he avoids the Big One crash.
Jordan: Truex could, and he isn’t lacking motivation, considering his Daytona 500 track record. One benefit to him being part-time is that it allows him to have a more selfish approach on Sunday where he doesn’t have to concern himself with hurting the feelings of someone and being a loyal wingman who puts his teammates’ interests ahead of his own.
You ranked the Daytona 500 fourth in your “anticipation rankings” and noted the last seven have finished either under caution or beyond the scheduled distance because of wrecks in the final lap. How likely do you think it is we’ll get a clean, “naturally unfolding finish” this year?
Jeff: We spoke to several drivers about this very question, and they are highly pessimistic. Joey Logano told us a clean and green finish “ain’t gonna happen,” and Bubba Wallace said there was maybe a two percent chance. The way these Next Gen cars draft, it allows them to get to another car’s rear bumper more easily and the runs come faster — except the cars are not stable when they’re being pushed. “You’re going to crash,” Logano said. “All of that is a recipe for a disaster.” Also, as Logano noted, it’s the freaking Daytona 500 — a win means so much more than second or third place, so everyone is willing to throw out a top-five finish in favor of some daring move in the final laps. Typically, those do not work out.
Jordan: Superspeedway races in general tend to feature a number of cautions in the closing laps. But when you take into account that this is the Daytona 500, NASCAR’s marquee race — and its richest — this only makes drivers race even more aggressively. Don’t expect this to be any different on Sunday.
OK, let’s do it: Who do you pick to win the Daytona 500, and why?
Jeff: Christopher Bell (+2500) crashed in four of his first six Daytona races. Since then, he has gone third-16th-third-third. He told us this week it’s simply his luck that has turned around at this place rather than doing something much different than before. The Toyota group typically drafts well together and now the manufacturer has two more helpers in Truex and Jimmie Johnson, both of whom qualified on speed Wednesday night. With a record 11 Toyotas in the race, there should be a better chance for one of them to break through this year, even if a bunch get swept up in a wreck. And I’ll take Bell to do it.
Jordan: Ryan Blaney is one of the best on superspeedways, and while he’s come close to winning the Daytona 500 on multiple occasions, he hasn’t yet. This changes on Sunday.
Who’s your favorite long shot?
Jeff: I mean, spin the wheel. It could be any number of people, and if there’s ever a race to sprinkle money on a few drivers who are +3000 or more, this is it. Let’s remind you that before William Byron won last year, the last three Daytona 500 champions were all upsets: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Michael McDowell and Austin Cindric. I could legitimately make a case for at least 30 drivers to win this race. But if I really have to pick one long shot, do not sleep on Justin Haley at +5000.
Jordan: Any time NASCAR heads to Daytona (or Talladega), Michael McDowell is a worthy longshot pick. He’s very good at managing races and putting himself in contention; he nearly won at both tracks last year only to be taken out in late crashes.
Odds for the Daytona 500
Read more about NASCAR
Bubba Wallace, with pressure up, enters new NASCAR season with a big task: Win
Denny Hamlin, NASCAR’s best driver to never win a title, faces a season of changes
In Daytona Beach, NASCAR’s influence goes far beyond Sunday’s iconic race
(Photo of Chase Briscoe: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)